- Spotify plays
- YouTube views
- YouTube likes
- Twitter followers
- Facebook likes
- Final predicted winner
- Top 5 prediction breakdown
- Emerging trends in the Eurovision Song Contest
Algorithm for social media predictionsAs usual, we have employed an algorithm to make the social media predictions – combining multiple social media metrics to get a final score. Some of the metrics include:
- Facebook likes
- Twitter followers
- YouTube views
- Social media mentions
12 points go to…The different entrants get scored using the Eurovision Song Contest’s points systems – 12 points for 1st, 10 points for 2nd and then 8, 7, 6 and so on for the rest of the top 10. So without further ado, join us as we find out who social media predicts will be the Eurovision Song Contest 2015’s winner!
Eurovision Song Contest 2015 – Spotify playsSweden completely dominates Spotify – it’s got more plays than the rest of the entrants combined. It’s pretty clear that Heroes has struck a massive chord with music fans. In fact, Heroes dwarves Conchita Wurst's combined Rise Like a Phoenix's plays on Spotify (approximately 6 million) although this data might be skewed by the platform's massive popularity in Scandinavia. It’s also worth noting that Heroes won Melodifestivalen (Sweden’s very own televised contest to pick a Eurovision entrant) in magnificent style. It won with 288 points – a record under Melodifestivalen’s current points system and a record marginal of 149 points between it and the runner up. Sanna Nielsen’s Undo came third last year despite only winning Melodifestivalen 2014 with a marginal of 2 points. Loreen’s Euphoria, which received the highest number of 12 points ever at a contest, won Melodifestivalen 2012 won with 268 points. Could Heroes’ runaway success at Melodifestivalen be a sign of triumph in Vienna? Many are saying yes and it is currently the bookies’ favourite to win the show.
Eurovision Song Contest 2015 – YouTube viewsRussia massively dominates YouTube viewing figures, with Eurovision powerhouse Azerbaijan, coming a close second. Russia is likely to hit 7 million views before the competition – unprecedented since we started our analysis in 2012. To put this into context, 2013’s winning performance had only 1.8 million views when we predicted Emmelie de Forest would win the ESC 2013. Russia’s power ballad promoting peace from Polina Gagarina is predicted to do well (currently 2nd in the Eurovision winner odds), and if Polina can continue to ride the YouTube wave of popularity then she should do fantastically. Looking at the views for the rehearsals, Russia, Estonia and Sweden are proving popular and we have seen a massive increase in production values in recent years which can have a huge impact on scores – especially thanks to the semi-finals giving contestants a chance to win over new fans.
Eurovision Song Contest 2015 – YouTube likesWhen we look at the growth in likes on YouTube, Sweden is far out in the lead – with a 287% growth in YouTube likes. Currently Mans Zemerlew lags behind the competition in terms of actual views (it is worth noting his video was uploaded to the Eurovision Song Contest YouTube channel rather late compared to the other entrants and that the upload to the Warner Music Sweden channel has significantly more views but as a rule we only use the official video uploaded to the official Eurovision Song Contest YouTube channel).
Eurovision Song Contest 2015 – YouTube viewsIf we look at how YouTube traffic has grown we have seen Russia continue to dominate the scene with Azerbaijan and Albania completing the top three. The UK fares well here but the UK is bad at converting YouTube popularity into votes; the UK also has one of the worst dislike scores.
Eurovision Song Contest 2015 – Twitter followersBelgium's Loic Nottet has done a fantastic job at growing his Twitter following - significantly more than the competition. Four of the competition favourites, Italy, Seden, Australia and Estonia have also done well. Twitter is often the weakest social platform for the contest – with many contestants languishing around the sub-3,000 follower mark. This is surprisingly low considering the ESC have an official app (which allows you to vote in some countries) and the relationship between Twitter and TV viewership is has grown exponentially.
Eurovision Song Contest 2015 - Facebook likesThis Norway, Latvia and Israel have grown their Facebook following the most, by 258%, 245% and 139% respectively. It’s worth noting that the numbers are still comparatively smaller compared to some of the established acts that are being sent. For example, Italy’s 900,000+ followers dwarves everyone else but they have grown their account at a slower pace.
Final predicted winnerAfter calculating the winner using our social media predictions algorithm we have come up with the following top 10:
|Sweden||Mans Zelmerlow||Heroes||73 points|
|Belgium||Loic Nottet||Rhythm Inside||65 points|
|Estonia||Elina Born & Stig Rasta||Goodbye to Yesterday||58 points|
|Russian||Polina Gagarina||A Million Voices||55.5 points|
|Italy||Il Volo||Grande amore||48 points|
|Azerbaijan||Elnur Huseynov||Hour of the Wolf||44 points|
|Australia||Guy Sebastian||Tonight Again||40 points|
|Norway||Morland & Debrah Scarlett||A Monster Like Me||34.5 points|
|Albania||Elhaida Dani||I'm Alive||33 points|
- Draw of performance (aside from Conchita Wurst and Ruslana winning from being drawn 11th and 10th respectively, in the last 10 years all other winners have performed during the second half of the show)
- Language (Serbia’s Marija Serifovic won in 2007 with Molitva and Ruslana won for Ukraine in a song in English and Ukrainian but all other winning songs have been song in English over the last decade. The last Italian language song to win was Toto Cutugno’s Insieme: 1992 in 1990)
- Stage performance (this is a massive part of Eurovision now and the arena’s place a lot of emphasis on the show; a good song with poor staging can very easily get overlooked by an okay song with unforgettable stage production)
- The semi-finals have become massively popular in recent years, giving contestants a chance to wow an already invested audience with their performance mere days before the actual contest. Chances are if you’re going to vote in a semi-final, you’ll vote for the same entrant in the final
- Block voting - expect neighbouring countries to vote for each other consistently but the re-introduction of the jury system makes it slightly more difficult to predict votes
- It’s live! Anything can happen on the night – someone might fall over or forget their words
Top 5 prediction breakdownCurrently Sweden continues to ride high on being the competiton's favourites but we have seen late surges in support for Belgium and Russia. Estonia continues to do well but Italy - once considered to be a winner - has started to lose traction.
1st - Mans Zelmerlow - SwedenSweden, the hot favourite on everyone’s lips, does an okay job at social media – Mans has been growing his social media following well, but doesn’t have the same reach has many of the bigger stars. Instead, Heroes has really picked up momentum and completely dominating the rest of the entries on Spotify and quickly growing in YouTube plays.
2nd - Loic Nottet - BelgiumTwitter following by 181% - far more than any other contestant.
3rd - Elina Born & Stig Rasta - EstoniaEstonia has been a quiet favourite – consistently ranking high in polls but not quite high enough to make it a three horse race. Estonia ranks well across the majority of metrics and will most likely be a solid score winner, but maybe not a 10 or 12 point runaway success.
4th - Polina Gagarina - RussiaNot many people had predicted a Russian winner (or even a top 5 finish) before the start of this week but Polina has been the runaway success of the competition on YouTube - her plays completely dwarf the competition. Her odds were slashed following her semi-final performance and she is currently one of the hot favourites to win the competition. Betting on Polina to win wouldn't be a silly decision at all.
5th - Il Volo - Italy
Coming in fifth is Italy’s Il Volo. They score big on Facebook and Twitter being an established act but Italy have sent established acts before and we have not seen that translate into Eurovision success.
Importantly they pick up good scores from YouTube likes and big scores from Spotify plays – helping them secure a high finish but as the competition enters its final hours, they have started to lose momentum. Of course on the night they will probably do extremely well and are still considered one of the hot favourites to win by the bookies.