Who Will Win Eurovision?

singing

The Eurovision is upon us and I know I’m not the only one to be terribly excited at music extravaganza that will delight millions of eyes and ears on 26th May 2012. Yes, the Eurovision Song Contest 2012 has snuck up on us like it does every year!

I appreciate that Eurovision is an acquired taste but I for one love the spectacle of it all. Katrina and the Waves winning seemed like a big deal when I was still at school! And with the United Kingdom in the throes of national pride and patriotism (London is hosting Olympics and it is the Queen’s Diamond Jubilee if you hadn’t noticed!), why would we not want to add hosting the Eurovision Song Contest 2013 as way to steamroll our national pride into 2013!

Eurovision Song Contest – an introduction

For anyone unaware of the process, 26 countries participate in winning the Eurovision Song Contest. Each participating country will perform one song and then the rest of Europe (some 40-50 countries) vote for their favourite song. The points are given to the 10 highest voted countries in descending order of 12, 10 and then 8 – 1. The winner of Eurovision is most often the country that wins the most illustrious 12 points (or douze points if you will).

Eurovision has long been criticised for political voting, the denigration got so bad that the Eurovision Song Committee reinstated an impartial voting jury to make up 50% of the voting score. Currently, Sweden’s Loreen and Euphoria is the bookie’s favourite to win the contest. However, I wanted to see if you could predict the winner based on social media!

Predicting the Eurovision Song Contest 2012 winner!

For this piece of analysis, I looked at four social media metrics:

  • The number of Facebook likes
  • The number of Twitter followers
  • The number of YouTube views for the official video
  • The number of YouTube likes for the official video

Please note, where possible I used the official Facebook fan page. Three countries did not have an official page: Greece, Spain and Macedonia (their acts Facebook page was instead their Wikipedia data). I also tried to use, where possible, the official Twitter accounts for the entrants. Two acts did not have a Twitter account – the lovely ladies of Russia, Buranovskiye Babushki and Macedonia’s Kaliopi.

For the YouTube data, I tried to use the official (or near office) video posted on the Eurovision YouTube channel. These are all dated from approximately two months ago.

Outlying variables include the artist already being famous nationally or internationally. This can have a big impact on the night. Similarly, the biggest variable will most likely be the song itself. A good song will often win over any political voting bias (Lena’s Satellite or Alexander Rybak’s Fairytale being two recent winners that spring to mind). Similarly, the song order may also prove to be a vital factor. Nonetheless, I think the results prove to be very interesting!

Eurovision artists on Facebook, Twitter and YouTube

Below you can see the raw data that I collected for this analysis. The top 10 countries/acts in each vertical were then awarded points based on the same Eurovision point scoring system (i.e. the act with the most Facebook likes would then receive 12 points).

I have listed the acts in the order they are drawn to perform.

Country Artist Song Facebook Likes Twitter Followers YouTube Views YouTube Likes
 United Kingdom Engelbert Humperdinck Love Will Set You Free 36,150 2,063 1,226,989 7,935
 Hungary Compact Disco Sound of Our Hearts 6,367 1,324 380,414 4,230
 Albania Rona Nishliu Suus3 16,841 1,651 741,932 6,111
 Lithuania Donny Montell Love is Blind 478 440 283,163 2,732
 Bosnia and Herzegovina MayaSar Korake ti znam 4,607 215 551,231 2,815
 Russia Buranovskiye Babushki Party for Everybody 2,940 0 3,365,289 18,365
 Iceland Gréta Salóme & Jónsi Never Forget 1,195 369 595,991 5,640
 Cyprus Ivi Adamou La La Love 99,910 14,084 225,740 13,935
 France Anggun Echo (You and I) 225,821 261,534 368,986 2,511
 Italy Nina Zilli L’amore è femmina (Out of Love) 152,134 49,573 620,964 5,094
 Estonia Ott Lepland Kuula 7,913 311 440,519 3,539
 Norway Tooji Stay 9,203 4,385 455,983 3,005
 Azerbaijan (host) Sabina Babayeva When the Music Dies 37,560 550 925,013 6,149
 Romania Mandinga Zaleilah 51,580 1,256 884,147 6,730
 Denmark Soluna Samay Should’ve Known Better 32,750 3,841 341,190 2,217
 Greece Eleftheria Eleftheriou Aphrodisiac 531 15,127 960,799 5,052
 Sweden Loreen Euphoria 71,557 9,804 3,761,993 17,561
 Turkey Can Bonomo Love Me Back 387,834 392,325 1,176,276 6,993
 Spain Pastora Soler Quédate conmigo 6,965 79,394 676,275 5,560
 Germany Roman Lob Standing Still 56,799 1,846 919,390 7,325
 Malta Kurt Calleja This Is the Night 3,029 1,249 405,659 3,384
 Macedonia Kaliopi Crno i belo 5,161 0 474,677 3,981
 Ireland Jedward Waterline 165,038 606,164 593,061 3,877
 Serbia Željko Joksimovic Nije ljubav stvar 295,803 24,722 822,166 5,195
 Ukraine Gaitana Be My Guest 440 187 384,701 2,382
 Moldova Pasha Parfeny Lautar 767 141 298,305 2,632

As you can see, there are some significant differences in the social media presence of the different participants.

For Facebook likes, Turkey, Serbia, France, Ireland and Italy receive the most points. On Twitter, Ireland, Turkey, France and Italy also make the top spots and are joined by Spain. Then things start to get a little interesting.

As mentioned before, the biggest variable, the song, is arguable the most important. And whilst Facebook and Twitter may be a better measure of how famous the act is, it is not a reflection of the song itself. The YouTube data may be the best at identifying how well a song is liked.

Sweden’s Loreen and Euphoria tops the chart for YouTube views with almost 4 million – significantly higher than second place (Russia) and far higher than third place (the UK). It is also worth noting that Sweden and Russia also have the highest amount of likes but Cyprus makes a surprise entry at three.

Predicted Eurovision Song Contest Winner

And so… based on the social media metrics discussed, who do I predict will win the Eurovision Song Contest 2012?  Firstly, the scores:

Country Facebook Pts Twitter Pts YouTube Views Pts YouTube Likes Pts
 United Kingdom 8 7
 Hungary
 Albania 1 2
 Lithuania
 Bosnia and Herzegovina
 Russia 10 12
 Iceland 1
 Cyprus 5 3 8
 France 8 8
 Italy 6 6
 Estonia
 Norway 1
 Azerbaijan (host) 1 5 3
 Romania 2 3 4
 Denmark
 Greece 4 6
 Sweden 4 2 12 10
 Turkey 12 10 7 5
 Spain 7
 Germany 3 4 6
 Malta
 Macedonia
 Ireland 7 12
 Serbia 10 5 2
 Ukraine
 Moldova

The Eurovision Song Contest 2012 winner is…

And then the final results and the winner is…

Order Country Total
1  Turkey 34
2  Sweden 28
3  Russia 22
4  Ireland 19
5  Serbia 17
6  Cyprus 16
7  France 16
8  United Kingdom 15
9  Germany 13
10  Italy 12
11  Greece 10
12  Azerbaijan (host) 9
13  Romania 9
14  Spain 7
15  Albania 3
16  Iceland 1
17  Norway 1
18  Hungary 0
19  Lithuania 0
20  Bosnia and Herzegovina 0
21  Estonia 0
22  Denmark 0
23  Malta 0
24  Macedonia 0
25  Ukraine 0
26  Moldova 0

Surprisingly Turkey comes up trumps! With a large number of Facebook likes and Twitter followers, and respectable YouTube scores, Turkey’s Can Bonomo with Love Me Back has come out highest.  In contrast, Sweden’s Loreen has come second. Euphoria scored extremely highly on YouTube but not as well on Facebook or Twitter.

If I was betting man, I would put money on both Turkey and Sweden!

Further analysis shows that it is looking like it could be a good year for the Big Five with France, United Kingdom, Germany and Italy all reaching the top 10.

Of course, this isn’t a scientific study by any stretch of the imagination and don’t come knocking if Turkey or Sweden don’t win, but hopefully this will give you a useful insight!

(my personal vote for a winner is Sweden!). Happy watching!  Return on Monday to find out

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