Who Will Win Eurovision?

singing

The Eurovision is upon us and I know I’m not the only one to be terribly excited at music extravaganza that will delight millions of eyes and ears on 26th May 2012. Yes, the Eurovision Song Contest 2012 has snuck up on us like it does every year!

I appreciate that Eurovision is an acquired taste but I for one love the spectacle of it all. Katrina and the Waves winning seemed like a big deal when I was still at school! And with the United Kingdom in the throes of national pride and patriotism (London is hosting Olympics and it is the Queen’s Diamond Jubilee if you hadn’t noticed!), why would we not want to add hosting the Eurovision Song Contest 2013 as way to steamroll our national pride into 2013!

Eurovision Song Contest – an introduction

For anyone unaware of the process, 26 countries participate in winning the Eurovision Song Contest. Each participating country will perform one song and then the rest of Europe (some 40-50 countries) vote for their favourite song. The points are given to the 10 highest voted countries in descending order of 12, 10 and then 8 – 1. The winner of Eurovision is most often the country that wins the most illustrious 12 points (or douze points if you will).

Eurovision has long been criticised for political voting, the denigration got so bad that the Eurovision Song Committee reinstated an impartial voting jury to make up 50% of the voting score. Currently, Sweden’s Loreen and Euphoria is the bookie’s favourite to win the contest. However, I wanted to see if you could predict the winner based on social media!

Predicting the Eurovision Song Contest 2012 winner!

For this piece of analysis, I looked at four social media metrics:

  • The number of Facebook likes
  • The number of Twitter followers
  • The number of YouTube views for the official video
  • The number of YouTube likes for the official video

Please note, where possible I used the official Facebook fan page. Three countries did not have an official page: Greece, Spain and Macedonia (their acts Facebook page was instead their Wikipedia data). I also tried to use, where possible, the official Twitter accounts for the entrants. Two acts did not have a Twitter account – the lovely ladies of Russia, Buranovskiye Babushki and Macedonia’s Kaliopi.

For the YouTube data, I tried to use the official (or near office) video posted on the Eurovision YouTube channel. These are all dated from approximately two months ago.

Outlying variables include the artist already being famous nationally or internationally. This can have a big impact on the night. Similarly, the biggest variable will most likely be the song itself. A good song will often win over any political voting bias (Lena’s Satellite or Alexander Rybak’s Fairytale being two recent winners that spring to mind). Similarly, the song order may also prove to be a vital factor. Nonetheless, I think the results prove to be very interesting!

Eurovision artists on Facebook, Twitter and YouTube

Below you can see the raw data that I collected for this analysis. The top 10 countries/acts in each vertical were then awarded points based on the same Eurovision point scoring system (i.e. the act with the most Facebook likes would then receive 12 points).

I have listed the acts in the order they are drawn to perform.

CountryArtistSongFacebook LikesTwitter Followers YouTube ViewsYouTube Likes
 United KingdomEngelbert HumperdinckLove Will Set You Free36,1502,0631,226,9897,935
 HungaryCompact DiscoSound of Our Hearts6,3671,324380,4144,230
 AlbaniaRona NishliuSuus316,8411,651741,9326,111
 LithuaniaDonny MontellLove is Blind478440283,1632,732
 Bosnia and HerzegovinaMayaSarKorake ti znam4,607215551,2312,815
 RussiaBuranovskiye BabushkiParty for Everybody2,94003,365,28918,365
 IcelandGréta Salóme & JónsiNever Forget1,195369595,9915,640
 CyprusIvi AdamouLa La Love99,91014,084225,74013,935
 FranceAnggunEcho (You and I)225,821261,534368,9862,511
 ItalyNina ZilliL’amore è femmina (Out of Love)152,13449,573620,9645,094
 EstoniaOtt LeplandKuula7,913311440,5193,539
 NorwayToojiStay9,2034,385455,9833,005
 Azerbaijan (host)Sabina BabayevaWhen the Music Dies37,560550925,0136,149
 RomaniaMandingaZaleilah51,5801,256884,1476,730
 DenmarkSoluna SamayShould’ve Known Better32,7503,841341,1902,217
 GreeceEleftheria EleftheriouAphrodisiac53115,127960,7995,052
 SwedenLoreenEuphoria71,5579,8043,761,99317,561
 TurkeyCan BonomoLove Me Back387,834392,3251,176,2766,993
 SpainPastora SolerQuédate conmigo6,96579,394676,2755,560
 GermanyRoman LobStanding Still56,7991,846919,3907,325
 MaltaKurt CallejaThis Is the Night3,0291,249405,6593,384
 MacedoniaKaliopiCrno i belo5,1610474,6773,981
 IrelandJedwardWaterline165,038606,164593,0613,877
 SerbiaŽeljko JoksimovicNije ljubav stvar295,80324,722822,1665,195
 UkraineGaitanaBe My Guest440187384,7012,382
 MoldovaPasha ParfenyLautar767141298,3052,632

As you can see, there are some significant differences in the social media presence of the different participants.

For Facebook likes, Turkey, Serbia, France, Ireland and Italy receive the most points. On Twitter, Ireland, Turkey, France and Italy also make the top spots and are joined by Spain. Then things start to get a little interesting.

As mentioned before, the biggest variable, the song, is arguable the most important. And whilst Facebook and Twitter may be a better measure of how famous the act is, it is not a reflection of the song itself. The YouTube data may be the best at identifying how well a song is liked.

Sweden’s Loreen and Euphoria tops the chart for YouTube views with almost 4 million – significantly higher than second place (Russia) and far higher than third place (the UK). It is also worth noting that Sweden and Russia also have the highest amount of likes but Cyprus makes a surprise entry at three.

Predicted Eurovision Song Contest Winner

And so… based on the social media metrics discussed, who do I predict will win the Eurovision Song Contest 2012?  Firstly, the scores:

CountryFacebook PtsTwitter PtsYouTube Views PtsYouTube Likes Pts
 United Kingdom87
 Hungary
 Albania12
 Lithuania
 Bosnia and Herzegovina
 Russia1012
 Iceland1
 Cyprus538
 France88
 Italy66
 Estonia
 Norway1
 Azerbaijan (host)153
 Romania234
 Denmark
 Greece46
 Sweden421210
 Turkey121075
 Spain7
 Germany346
 Malta
 Macedonia
 Ireland712
 Serbia1052
 Ukraine
 Moldova

The Eurovision Song Contest 2012 winner is…

And then the final results and the winner is…

OrderCountryTotal
1 Turkey34
2 Sweden28
3 Russia22
4 Ireland19
5 Serbia17
6 Cyprus16
7 France16
8 United Kingdom15
9 Germany13
10 Italy12
11 Greece10
12 Azerbaijan (host)9
13 Romania9
14 Spain7
15 Albania3
16 Iceland1
17 Norway1
18 Hungary0
19 Lithuania0
20 Bosnia and Herzegovina0
21 Estonia0
22 Denmark0
23 Malta0
24 Macedonia0
25 Ukraine0
26 Moldova0

Surprisingly Turkey comes up trumps! With a large number of Facebook likes and Twitter followers, and respectable YouTube scores, Turkey’s Can Bonomo with Love Me Back has come out highest.  In contrast, Sweden’s Loreen has come second. Euphoria scored extremely highly on YouTube but not as well on Facebook or Twitter.

If I was betting man, I would put money on both Turkey and Sweden!

Further analysis shows that it is looking like it could be a good year for the Big Five with France, United Kingdom, Germany and Italy all reaching the top 10.

Of course, this isn’t a scientific study by any stretch of the imagination and don’t come knocking if Turkey or Sweden don’t win, but hopefully this will give you a useful insight!

(my personal vote for a winner is Sweden!). Happy watching!  Return on Monday to find out

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