World Cup social media update – group stage round-up

world cup update group stage

Many are hailing this the greatest opening to a World Cup and we can certainly say that it’s been a great opening for social media and our predictions too.

One key development has been the way that social networks allow fans to respond quickly (and with lots of humour) to what happens on the pitch. As we’ll see later in this article, the Suarez biting memes started minutes after the incident and have continued to provide lots of entertainment.

Overall our success rate with social media is 50%, which is more accurate than the predictions made by Goldman Sachs and Bloomberg. We’ve updated our original predictions to reflect the group stage results.

Download new predictions

Social media performance after third matches

During the third matches we maintained a 44% accuracy rate putting us on par with Bloomberg. Goldman Sachs improved on their week 2 performance with 50% correct.

MatchResultGoldmanBloombergMintTwist
Brazil v CameroonBrazilBrazilBrazilBrazil
Mexico v CroatiaMexicoDrawDrawDraw
Netherlands v ChileNetherlandsNetherlandsDrawNetherlands
Spain v AustraliaSpainSpainSpainSpain
Colombia v JapanColombiaDrawDrawColombia
Greece v Ivory CoastGreeceDrawDrawGreece
Costa Rica v EnglandDrawDrawEnglandEngland
Italy v UruguayUruguayDrawDrawItaly
France v EcuadorDrawDrawFranceFrance
Honduras v SwitzerlandSwitzerlandDrawDrawDraw
Argentina v NigeriaArgentinaArgentinaArgentinaDraw
Bosnia v IranBosniaDrawBosniaBosnia
Portugal v GhanaPortugalDrawPortugalDraw
USA v GermanyGermanyGermanyGermanyUSA
Belgium v KoreaBelgiumDrawBelgiumBelgium
Russia v AlgeriaDrawDrawRussiaRussia

Overall performance of social media predictions

Combining all the group matches gives us an overall rate of 50%. Social media has proved itself to be more accurate than other data as our table below shows.

MatchesMintTwistGoldmanBloomberg
157%43%50%
250%31%44%
344%50%44%
Average50%41%46%

Why were we more accurate? Goldman Sachs and Bloomberg predicted substantially more draws than we did and this hurt their rates. When we compiled our rankings it was clear there were going to be surprises, e.g. the USA, that other data may not have shown.

Our overall group qualifiers prediction came out at 69%. We’re not surprised to see Chile and Uruguay qualifying as they had strong rankings (11 and 7 respectively) but drew tough social media groups. Algeria is a genuine surprise.

Revised predictions

We’ve revised our predictions with the new qualifiers and have also revisited the rankings to see how teams have improved over the group stage.

Revised top ten rankings

RankCountrySocial rank
1Brazil2
2Germany4
3USA1
4Netherlands3
5Uruguay5
6Belgium6
7Colombia9
8Argentina13
9France8
10Chile11

We are still predicting a win for Brazil, however, the gap has closed and it is much tighter between the top 10 teams. Germany has overtaken the USA in the rankings and could meet Brazil, who we are still predicting to win, in the semi-final.

Download new predictions

Greece’s Twitter followers grew by 94% over the competition, and the Netherlands have almost doubled their following. Instagram feeds have also seen significant growth. Argentina’s social media has benefited from the genius touch of Messi.

Networks who underperform are Facebook, Google+ and YouTube. These have seen steady growth for teams but not as quickly as Twitter or Instagram, which are much better placed for quick reactions to live moments such as goals, bookings and vampire attacks.

NetworkAverage growth in followers
Facebook25%
Twitter49%
Google+27%
YouTube22%
Instagram45%

Uruguay’s social following and mentions have improved its ranking, however this is not necessarily an indication of support for them. The Suarez biting incident inevitably stimulates conversation about Uruguay and we have considered the impact of the negative sentiment when predicting their match with Colombia.

Top social moments

#Suarez

The meme world exploded after the Suarez biting incident.

USA v Germany

The USA support has grown as they have advanced, helped by a note from Klinsmann.

England v Croatia

Fans were not impressed with the performance.

Join the conversation!

We’re looking forward to the next round and want to hear who you think will win!

Keep up-to-date with MintTwist and your favourite team by downloading our guide to each team’s twitter handle and hashtags.

Download World Cup Teams Twitter Guide

What have your favourite #WorldCup social media moments been? Tell us what you think @minttwist or hello@minttwist.com .

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