Many are hailing this the greatest opening to a World Cup and we can certainly say that it’s been a great opening for social media and our predictions too.
One key development has been the way that social networks allow fans to respond quickly (and with lots of humour) to what happens on the pitch. As we’ll see later in this article, the Suarez biting memes started minutes after the incident and have continued to provide lots of entertainment.
Overall our success rate with social media is 50%, which is more accurate than the predictions made by Goldman Sachs and Bloomberg. We’ve updated our original predictions to reflect the group stage results.
Social media performance after third matches
|Brazil v Cameroon||Brazil||Brazil||Brazil||Brazil|
|Mexico v Croatia||Mexico||Draw||Draw||Draw|
|Netherlands v Chile||Netherlands||Netherlands||Draw||Netherlands|
|Spain v Australia||Spain||Spain||Spain||Spain|
|Colombia v Japan||Colombia||Draw||Draw||Colombia|
|Greece v Ivory Coast||Greece||Draw||Draw||Greece|
|Costa Rica v England||Draw||Draw||England||England|
|Italy v Uruguay||Uruguay||Draw||Draw||Italy|
|France v Ecuador||Draw||Draw||France||France|
|Honduras v Switzerland||Switzerland||Draw||Draw||Draw|
|Argentina v Nigeria||Argentina||Argentina||Argentina||Draw|
|Bosnia v Iran||Bosnia||Draw||Bosnia||Bosnia|
|Portugal v Ghana||Portugal||Draw||Portugal||Draw|
|USA v Germany||Germany||Germany||Germany||USA|
|Belgium v Korea||Belgium||Draw||Belgium||Belgium|
|Russia v Algeria||Draw||Draw||Russia||Russia|
Overall performance of social media predictions
Combining all the group matches gives us an overall rate of 50%. Social media has proved itself to be more accurate than other data as our table below shows.
Why were we more accurate? Goldman Sachs and Bloomberg predicted substantially more draws than we did and this hurt their rates. When we compiled our rankings it was clear there were going to be surprises, e.g. the USA, that other data may not have shown.
Our overall group qualifiers prediction came out at 69%. We’re not surprised to see Chile and Uruguay qualifying as they had strong rankings (11 and 7 respectively) but drew tough social media groups. Algeria is a genuine surprise.
We’ve revised our predictions with the new qualifiers and have also revisited the rankings to see how teams have improved over the group stage.
Revised top ten rankings
We are still predicting a win for Brazil, however, the gap has closed and it is much tighter between the top 10 teams. Germany has overtaken the USA in the rankings and could meet Brazil, who we are still predicting to win, in the semi-final.
Greece’s Twitter followers grew by 94% over the competition, and the Netherlands have almost doubled their following. Instagram feeds have also seen significant growth. Argentina’s social media has benefited from the genius touch of Messi.
Networks who underperform are Facebook, Google+ and YouTube. These have seen steady growth for teams but not as quickly as Twitter or Instagram, which are much better placed for quick reactions to live moments such as goals, bookings and vampire attacks.
|Network||Average growth in followers|
Uruguay’s social following and mentions have improved its ranking, however this is not necessarily an indication of support for them. The Suarez biting incident inevitably stimulates conversation about Uruguay and we have considered the impact of the negative sentiment when predicting their match with Colombia.
Top social moments
The meme world exploded after the Suarez biting incident.
— Renzo Soprano (@Renzo_Soprano) June 24, 2014
The bravest man in the world? Luis Suarez’ dentist.
— Soccer Memes (@FBSoccerMemes) June 24, 2014
BREAKING: Walking Dead producers confirm Luis Suarez set to appear in Season 6.
— Matthew Doyle (@MLSAnalyst) June 24, 2014
Time for this beauty again http://t.co/alPzGPFhpX
— Andy Rotheram (@AndyEFC1878) June 24, 2014
Luis Suárez having a pre-match nap. Thanks to Steve, Conor and Jamie for various vampire-related suggestions. pic.twitter.com/rvmLOM0Iag
— Jim’ll Paint It (@Jimllpaintit) June 25, 2014
USA v Germany
The USA support has grown as they have advanced, helped by a note from Klinsmann.
— The Whistle (@TheWhistle) June 25, 2014
— David Nelson (@DavidNelsonNews) June 25, 2014
England v Croatia
Fans were not impressed with the performance.
— David Schneider (@davidschneider) June 24, 2014
— Pie Sports Booze (@piesportsbooze) June 24, 2014
— Martin Sykes (@MartinSykes6) June 24, 2014
The biggest decision the England players need to make today is whether they want an aisle or window seat #ENGvsCRC
— JUST-EAT.co.uk (@JustEatUK) June 24, 2014
— Pot Noodle (@Pot_Noodle) June 24, 2014
Join the conversation!
We’re looking forward to the next round and want to hear who you think will win!
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